APC Orchestrates Strategic Alliance to Solidify 2027 Presidential Election Prospects
Details have emerged regarding a calculated strategy being deployed by President Bola Tinubu and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), aimed at securing substantial bloc votes from the Southern and North-Central regions of Nigeria. This initiative is reportedly designed to preemptively counter potential political challenges and guarantee a second term for the President in the upcoming 2027 presidential election, even amidst growing dissent in certain parts of the North.
Sources within the APC secretariat suggest that this elaborate plan, described by a senior party official as a “materialising countermeasure,” commenced over five months ago. The strategy was reportedly conceived following intelligence reports that highlighted potential political threats emanating from the core Northern states and the formation of a coalition of opposition leaders, purportedly led by the African Democratic Party.
Key figures identified as instrumental in devising this strategic blueprint include the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila; the Chairman of the APC Governors’ Forum, Hope Uzodimma; the National Secretary of the APC, Ajibola Basiru; and James Faleke, the lawmaker representing Ikeja Federal Constituency.
Northern Resistance and the Crucial Role of Southern and North-Central Votes
In recent months, prominent Northern socio-political groups, such as the Northern Elders Forum and the Arewa Consultative Forum, have voiced considerable dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration. These groups have openly declared their reluctance to endorse him for a second term, citing accusations of marginalization of the region in political appointments, resource allocation, and efforts to address security challenges.
Furthermore, influential political figures from the North, including former Kaduna State Governor Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, former Minister of Justice and Attorney General Abubakar Malami, and former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West) Salihu Lukman, along with loyalists of the late President Muhammadu Buhari, have been actively mobilizing opposition against President Tinubu within the Northern populace.
The significance of the Northern vote cannot be overstated. Data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) reveals that out of the 8,794,726 votes President Tinubu secured in the 2023 election, a substantial 5,346,686 votes originated from the North. This underscores the region’s critical importance to his political success. In the 2023 polls, Tinubu clinched victory in six Northern states: Jigawa, Zamfara, Kogi, Niger, Benue, and Borno. In contrast, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, garnered 5,229,473 votes in the region, winning in Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, Bauchi, Adamawa, and Taraba states.
To mitigate the impact of this Northern pushback, the APC is reportedly intensifying its efforts to consolidate President Tinubu’s support base in the South and the North-Central regions.
Consolidating the Southern Bloc: A Strategic Imperative
The APC’s game plan, according to an anonymous APC official privy to the matter, is to ensure that all Southern states are secured for Tinubu in 2027. “The motive behind this move is that no opposition should win any state in the South, to guard against what we experienced in 2023,” the official stated, highlighting the need to prevent a recurrence of the opposition’s successes in the South during the previous election.
In 2023, the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar secured victories in Osun, Akwa Ibom, and Bayelsa states, accumulating 637,196 votes in the South. More significantly, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, achieved considerable success in the South, winning Lagos, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia, Anambra, Delta, Cross River, and Edo states.
The party source indicated that the objective is to reclaim these Southern states through “targeted alliances, elite outreach, and federal influence.” The recent defections of PDP governors in the South are attributed to the “materialisation of the countermeasure,” with assurances that all necessary arrangements are in place for the APC to secure the region.
“The team has successfully delivered the South to the President. There is nothing stopping us from winning all the southern states. Except for Abia and Oyo, all other states in the South are now with the APC. The Governor of Osun State declared support for Asiwaju (the President) and was willing to join the APC. Once we secure the targeted bloc votes in the South, we are 50 per cent down the victory line,” the APC official elaborated.
When approached for comment on the APC’s strategic moves in the Southern and North-Central states, the party’s National Secretary, Ajibola Basiru, declined to elaborate, stating, “I don’t discuss strategy on the pages of newspapers. Thank you.” Efforts to obtain further insights from the APC Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, were unsuccessful.
Reclaiming the North-Central: The Decisive Factor
Beyond the Southern states, President Tinubu also faced significant setbacks in key North-Central states during the 2023 election, with Peter Obi winning Plateau, Nasarawa, and the Federal Capital Territory. A senior APC official revealed that the party has been actively engaged in strategic maneuvers over recent months to reclaim these lost territories ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
“According to the plan on the ground, the North-Central is targeted to be the final straw that will break the camel’s back. I am aware that the team has commissioned some individuals in the region to ensure that the President secures bloc votes from there,” the source explained.
The strategy posits that securing the South and the North-Central will effectively neutralize any votes garnered by opposing candidates in the North-East and North-West, thereby guaranteeing victory. The presence of the Vice President from Borno and ongoing efforts to garner substantial votes from Kaduna State are also considered crucial components of this plan.
Targeting 80-90% Vote Share in the North-Central
Leaders of the APC in the North-Central region are reportedly working in close collaboration with the Presidency and the national secretariat to ensure a decisive victory for the party in 2027. Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, the Chairman of the North-Central APC Forum, expressed confidence in achieving an 80–90 per cent vote share for President Tinubu from the region.
“We have been engaged in different consultations. We are meeting with clerics, youth organisations, and other groups. The task is to deliver the North-Central for the President, and we are all working to give him a massive vote,” Zazzaga stated. He highlighted the perceived preferential treatment given to the North-Central by President Tinubu, citing infrastructure development and significant appointments, including the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, the Chairman of INEC, and the APC National Chairman.
Zazzaga confirmed that the efforts are being coordinated between the national secretariat and the Presidency, with the involvement of businessmen and other prominent individuals in the North-Central. He also expressed optimism about a North-Central candidate succeeding Tinubu after his potential second term in 2031.
Opposition Dismisses APC Strategy as “Empty”
In response to the APC’s strategic maneuvers, opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), have characterized the ruling party’s approach as an “empty strategy” that will ultimately fail to secure victory.
The National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, accused the APC of “living in self-deception,” arguing that the party’s declining popularity and poor governance record have alienated it from the electorate. “They (APC) are just deluding themselves. They know they have lost the people. That is why they are trying to create the impression that they have control of more states,” Abdullahi asserted. He further questioned the reliability of APC governors as electoral assets, citing public admissions from the APC National Chairman regarding their failure to deliver good governance.
Abdullahi also dismissed the wave of defections to the APC, attributing them to personal ambition rather than genuine party alignment. He maintained that the 2027 elections would be decided by the people’s experiences under the current administration, not by political machinations.
The PDP, through its National Publicity Secretary, Ini Ememobong, accused the APC of attempting to stifle opposition and undermine democratic principles ahead of the 2027 general elections. Ememobong stressed the vital role of opposition parties in strengthening democratic governance and warned against actions that could “obfuscate the political oxygen” necessary for a healthy political environment.
The NNPP, via its National Publicity Secretary, Ladipo Johnson, predicted an APC defeat in 2027, despite the influx of governors and political heavyweights into the party. Johnson described the upcoming election as a contest between the people and the APC, criticizing governors who switch parties amidst widespread economic hardship. He emphasized that massive voter turnout would make any attempts at rigging difficult and ultimately impossible, asserting that the election would be a clear demonstration of the people’s will against what they perceive as despotic leadership. “The opposition stands a chance of defeating the APC in 2027 because there is still time to organise and take the fight to the APC. The election will be the people against the APC. The people themselves will speak,” Johnson concluded.
